by Arinze Izik
Nigeria’s chances of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have improved after CAF revised the qualifying format following Eritrea’s withdrawal from the competition.
Eritrea’s exit left Group E with five teams instead of six, creating an imbalance. To ensure fairness, CAF and FIFA are considering a rule that removes points earned against the bottom-placed team in each group when ranking the best second-placed sides.
In a circular dated March 14, 2025, signed by CAF Director of Tournaments and Events Samson Adamu, the body said that when a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not count when comparing runners-up.
The adjustment follows Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition regulations and is aimed at creating uniformity in selecting the four best runners-up across Africa.
If applied, Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon could each lose six points, which would reshape the qualification table. Cameroon would lose four points, while Nigeria could move up the standings.
The change is significant for Nigeria, who currently sit outside the top spot after taking only two points against bottom-placed Zimbabwe. With results against the lowest-ranked teams set to be excluded, the Super Eagles’ qualification outlook improves.
Nigeria’s next fixtures are against Lesotho and Benin. The team will look to take advantage of the revised criteria, pick up key wins, and restart their push to return to the World Cup after missing out on Qatar 2022.
CAF said the adjustment was necessary to maintain fairness, balance, transparency, and sporting integrity in the qualifiers despite unexpected team withdrawals.
